Thursday, October 19, 2006

Those IMFL time predictions

I don't know what the weather will be like.
I don't know what the surf will be like.
I don't know how I'll be feeling.
I don't know how my stomach will react after over 9 hours on course.
I do know that unexpected things will happen on the course, and I will deal with them as they occur.

But that said, I can make some educated time estimates of my various performance scenarios.

Swim 2.4 miles:
A dream day: less than 1:38 (less than double my Steelhead swim time)
A happy day: 1:38 - 1:52 (faster than my Chesapeakeman swim time)
An okay day: 1:53 - 2:19 (staying just ahead of the 2:20 swim cutoff, possibly with swim problems)

T1 - Swim to bike transition:
A dream day: less than 0:08:00 (faster than Chesapeakeman)
A happy day: 0:0800 - 0:12:00 (Typical T1 for me)
An okay day: 0:12:00 - 0:15:00 (slower than even the Chesapeakeman chatfest)

Bike 112 miles:
A dream day: less than 6:45 = 16.6 mph (14 minutes faster than Chesapeakeman)
A happy day: 6:45 - 7:10 = 15.6 mph (right around the time of Chesapeakeman)
An okay day: 7:10 - 8:00 = 14.0 mph (staying ahead of the 10:15 elapsed time cutoff, perhaps with flats or other problems?)

T2 - Bike to run transition:
A dream day: less than 0:03:00 (faster than Eagleman)
A happy day: 0:03:00 - 0:05:00 (typical T2 for me)
An okay day: 0:05:00 - 0:10:00 (slower if I'm getting really, really tired; or doing very well and taking my time accessorizing for the run)

Run 26.2 miles:
A dream day: less than 5:52 = 13:26 min/mile (a marathon PR)
A happy day: 5:52 to 6:37 = 15:09 min/mile (faster than my tired Goofy marathon last January)
An okay day: 6:37 to 7:16 = 16:38 min/mile (faster than my slowest, hottest standalone marathon in Maui, 2001)

What would those times yield?

Total time:
A dream day: 14:26
A happy day: 15:56 (pretty close to my best bet)
A not-so-okay day: 18:00 - which would put me over the finish line an hour after the cutoffs. Therefore I can't have problems in every discipline - I'd have to pull it out on the run and go fast (for me)!!! Which I could do, maybe, if I weren't exhausted! But this is a good reminder that nothing is certain in Ironman, and a big fat DNF is still a distinct possibility!


Iron Pol said...

Regardless of your performance on race day, you are the winner in this. While there will be loads of bloggers pulling for another load of bloggers on the race course, race day is only another step along the journey.

Focus on that journey, and you will see that whether you complete this race or not, it isn't finished. The only way to get a DNF is to quit (the journey, not the race). I don't see that happening.

Mr Steve said...

You'll do great!

I like how you listed your occupation as MOMMY. Found it on the participants list. They have NA as your bib number. Surprising they do not have assigned yet.

Go get'em!

Comm's said...

Dont' forget to shave 4 minute off T1 because of the wet suit strippers.

Iron Pol said...

They have strippers in wetsuits? Only in Florida.

Vickie said...

Don't forget, you will still be an Ironman even if your time is 16:59:59. A friend of mine at Wisconsin (an experienced IM finisher) was the last official finisher: 16:59:40 and still an Ironman. You'll do fine!

soozey said...

Are there rules about cutoffs for each event? I guess I could go look that up. But you're such an IM encyclopedia! Good luck, again!

nancytoby said...

Yeah, I'm hoping I can get comfortably in front of 16:59, but if I can't I'm hoping I have enough energy to sprint for the line!!!!

Thanks for the encouragement!

Sooz - the cutoffs are the same for all Ironman events *except* Ironman Florida has a bike cutoff 15 minutes earlier (because it gets dark).

21st Century Mom said...

You've done the pieces and had more than enough time at the end. You are in great shape to make the finish in time.

Time to stop obessing and start trusting in your training and your strength!

And yes - anything under 17:00 and you're good.

The real question is - will you get the tattoo??

triteacher said...

I'm getting jitters for you - yet you seem so calm and rational. Keep it up!

Ellie said...

You go, girl! When I see you on the run in those flashy bracelets I'll know you had time to spare in T-2 and give you an extra cheer (if I have any extra air...)

TxSkatemom said...

you're going to be awesome -- such preparedness is going to pay off. I can't wait to hear the reports and will be by the computer tracking you and El for sure

Lisa said...

You will do awesome! You are so well prepared!

I will be at a wedding the day of IM Florida, so I will be anxiously awaiting all the race results upon my return home.

Best wishes from one redhead to another (future) redhead! ;) You will ROCK!

nancytoby said...

Thanks for all your good wishes!! But ... but... I still have two whole weeks to obsess about everything!! LOL!

RunBubbaRun said...

good luck, you will do great. just a quick thing. Not to make you more nervous. But they do have a halfway point bike and run cutoffs also. They did at IMWI. So I figure you better know now than hear it at race dinner. But really, enjoy the IM weekend and soak it all in. It will never be your 1st IM again. Have some fun too.

jeanne said...

we're all obsessing right along with you, no worries! i love how you analyzed all this. you are TOTALLY prepared for this race and your great attitude will get you thru anything it throws at you...i have no doubt!

(Now i feel like a weenie for fretting about 26.2 measly miles!)

Kewl Nitrox said...

You are SO gonna pull it out of the bag. I know you may not (yet) believe this stuff, but I will still be praying for ya whether you like it or not! :)

Not sure if I told you this before, but your courage and grace/hunour under pressure really encourages me.

Kewl Nitrox said...

oops.. I meant "grace/HUMOUR under pressure". :)

nancytoby said...

Thank you!!!!!!!

I do appreciate it - I'll gladly accept any and all prayers and good wishes for a crash-free flat-free day!!

*jeanne* said...

Watching from afar, Nance.
May all your dreams come true today.
You are one awesome incredible woman, I hope you enjoy every agonizing and triumphant moment of this!
You simply ROCK!!!
As I write this, you've already finished with the swim and T1. BIKE ON, BABY!!! :-D

*jeanne* said...

OK, NANCY!!! 6:59 p.m. Sat. Nov. 4, 2006.
Here you go!

You have ONLY a marathon left.

And YOU can do a marathon in your SLEEP.
(and by now, you may just want to do so!)

WINGS. I wish you wings on your shoes. :-)