I have a love-hate relationship with race result predictors, like the one at marathonguide.com. This is what it said from my 10k time from last Saturday:
"Based on our calculations, you could perform at these times over these distances. If you are in much better shape than expected in our theoretical model, then your times will be less spread out. Conversely, if you are in worse shape then your times may be more dispersed."
5K 0:28:58
5M 0:47:49
10K 1:00:41
10M 1:40:10
Half Marathon 2:14:33
Marathon 4:41:49
The good news is that was my fastest race result ever (well, since the 1980s), at any distance. The other good news is that a sub-5-hour marathon may finally(!) be within reach for me at Marine Corps this autumn.
The bad news is that I haven't made those times at either shorter or longer distances than 10 kilometers. So I have a lot of hard work ahead of me in order to hit those marks.
Um, before I retire from running, that is.
3 comments:
A sub 5 hour marathon?? OMG - what that would do to me. I just want a sub 5:17 so I can PR and never run another marathon in my life. If you go sub 5 then you know that means for me!!
Congrats on your trophy!
I feel the calculators also disregard your "specialties." Just like pros race certain distances because that's what they're best at, AGers are the same.
I can really rip out a half-marathon, and have little doubt I can easily crush estimates at that distance. But at marathon, I always seem to fall way short. And I mean WAY.
IMHO, marathon predictions based on half marathon race results are more reliable than those based on 5K/10Ks. But that still puts you under 5 hours for a marathon :-)
Good luck training for MCM!!!
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