Thursday, October 04, 2007

Predictors

I hate pace predictors.

According to Macmillan, a 33:15 5K (that's about a 10:45 min/mile pace) like I ran today will only buy me a 5:24 marathon finish time (~12:20 min/mile).

That just sucks.

But so do those last 6 miles of the marathon. . . .

And it's still an improvement on the 5:26-equivalent I ran just a few days ago, too. It's still moving in the correct direction.

5 comments:

21stCenturyMom said...

A 5K is not a predictor of a marathon. You knew, that, of course. You also know that you must be disciplined at the start of the race and not go out too fast. If you hold back, stay hydrated and salted and fueled up you'll get there. Sub 5 is ambitious (and will force me to run another marathon, damnit!) but if you pace yourself correctly you can do it!

Brian W said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Brian W said...

to access he calculator use
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/rununiv/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm

Julia said...

What sucks exactly? What is your current PR? I know you were looking to go under 5h but do you have recent workouts that support a sub five marathon? Questions, questions, questions!

Nancy Toby said...

Ahh, thanks for the correction, Brian.

What sucks is that I'm slower than I want to be! :-)

I'm inching up on a sub-5, and I still might be able to do it on a perfect day, but I'm thinking it will be more like 5:15-5:30 in reality. We'll see after my long-long workout tomorrow.

If I can run as fast as I did last spring once it gets cooler... sub-5 is possible. But only just. Right now it's about 20 degrees hotter. A lot depends on race day weather for me.